A recent Financial Post article highlights the  latest figures released by the Teranet-National Bank home index, and according to those November 2009 numbers, national home prices strengthened year-over-year.  Okay, so maybe that’s nothing shocking, in light of recent news. But what is interesting is that certain markets are definitely affecting the overall bottom-line. And some markets haven’t recovered as much as you might think.

For instance, kind of like the way Jupiter or the Sun massively influence what’s around them, thanks to their size and gravitational pull, there are several centres that are doing their share of affecting the greater-whole. Thus, while national home prices rose by nearly 3%, from Nov ‘08 – Nov ‘09, the majority of that growth (year-over-year) was due to growth in major centres like Vancouver, Toronto & Montreal.

By conrast, Calgary home prices remained negative, year-over-year, with home prices down just over 2% from the period of Nov ‘08 to Nov ‘09. And while this statistic may suprise some of you (and make others yawn) it’s important to remember just how high home prices were – as recently of Aug ‘08, before tumbling dramatically during the economic downturn.

Now, this article in particular doesn’t address the Nov ‘08/’09 numbers for other larger centres like Edmonton, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Halifax, Hamilton etc. And as is typical with media, the article leaves a general impression that because of noticeable gains in only Vancouver, Toronto & Montreal we can assume that all of Canada can expect sustainable growth in the housing market. Well this kind of blanket statement can, as always, be a forecast at best – simply because each market is unique.

If you really think about it, the state of our national housing market is still calculated on a case-by-case basis. And while the news is definitely positive, it’s important to remember how influential (or hindering) certain markets can be when it comes to evaluating the greater whole.

And here’s more food for thought: “The Teranet-National Bank index is based on prices in land registries of homes that have been sold at least twice.” So in this case, we’re comparing data that is based on certain, specific, criteria as well. Another study may use different data altogether.

Regardless, the overall feeling is one of renewed optimism for most. And I think this will continue into the spring and summer months of 2010.

What do you think? Send me your comments.

If you’re a field-goal kicker for, say, the Calgary Stampeders, putting 23 of 28 kicks through the uprights wouldn’t be too shabby. Answering 23 out of 28, skill-testing, questions correctly on a test, exam, or quiz – nothing to be ashamed of.  Heck, if you pull out your scorecard and you’re able to (honestly) mark yourself down as 5-under, after the first 28 strokes on the golf-course, wow – that’s something to brag about.

But if your city ranks, say, 23rd out of 28 with regards to national affordability – or on a broader scale, if it ranks 188th out of 272 internationally, I wouldn’t blame you for being a little less willing to celebrate. A little less willing to shout it from the roof-tops. You get the picture.

And that’s the case in a recent study ranking the most affordable and least affordable cities in Canada, and the world, to live in right now. And this Calgary Herald article gives a quick synopsis of where Calgary ranks, in relation to other cities in this category.

Have a read through the article and it’s not surprising to find Windsor and Thunder Bay as the front-runners, ie. the most affordable cities to live, in Canada, right now. They and several other centres, in the more populace areas of Ontario and Quebec, took a significant hit when manufacturing markets sagged during the recent major economic downturn.

But perhaps what’s more startling is that Vancouver, Toronto, Victoria and (for the first time in decades) Montreal are either flirting with or considered full-blown, “severely unaffordable.” And Calgary isn’t that far behind, considering the latest number-crunching as an indicator.

Ironically, our city actually inched-up on the affordability scale, up 0.2 over 2008. So perhaps any positive news (be it even slight) is good news. But it will be very interesting to see where we end up, say, at the end of 2010 or in Q1 of 2011 if the housing market keeps it’s steady rebound pace.

Further hazing the crystal-ball, so to speak, will be how we react to any and all rising interest rates, changes to amortization periods (should the feds choose to change the rules), continued price increases in various metro-markets, employment rate changes and income rates in these centres, and the typical cycle of supply & demand for real estate. Many or all of these factors will affect future affordability with regards to home ownership.

If there is a silver-lining here for Calgarians, it’s most likely the fact that we’re still affordable compared to Vancouver – which ranked #1 out of 272 international cities as the least affordable, in case you were wondering.

Thoughts? Tell me if you’re surprised by these results.

The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) recently held their annual market forecast, for 2010, and with it there are certainly reasons to be optimistic.  Have a look at the full report for yourself, including the latest stats, figures & analysis, and here are a few of the highlights and topics discussed:

- Calgary remains tied to a global economic recovery.
- Emerging economies will lead economic upturn
- India and China will power ahead.
- Rising demand for commodities will be a boon for resource-rich Canada.
- A measure of volatility will persist.
- A lagging US economy and a rising loonie will temper growth in the first half of 2010.
- Calgary employment will depend on energy sector investment.
- Affordability and low interest rates will support a balanced housing market.
- 2010 housing demand will build momentum as the year progresses.
- Single family homes will show modest price increases – condo price growth will lag.
- Smaller homes and lower priced segments will lead in sales and price growth.
- Low interest rates will offset price increases & ensure affordability in the short term.

So, have a read and send me your thoughts.