A lot of the water-cooler talk, media-buzz, and overall conversation starters lately seem to be centered around the real estate market. In Calgary, much is being made of the latest Re/Max Housing Outlook for 2010, and a Calgary Herald article highlights that outlook.
According to the Re/Max forecast , local inventory will edge up slightly but high demand areas will see limited listings. In addition, the average MLS residential sale price of a Calgary existing home is expected to rise to $403,000 in 2010 – a rise of about 5%. The same average price fell an estimated 5%, in 2009, to $385,000 from the previous year. Now, keep in mind that average price is for all residential properties including single-family homes and condominiums, in all of the Calgary MLS.
So where does that leave us? Well it continues to fit within the guidelines of a more balanced market – which Calgary has been in since at least the summer. The volume of listings is significantly lower than it was in fall of 2008 and the winter and early spring of 2009.
Interestingly, the Canada Mortgage & Housing Corporation (CMHC) is also forecasting growth of 4.8% for Calgary’s average MLS sale price, in 2010 – after falling 5.1% in 2009. The CMHC also says sales are predicted to rise more than 10% in Calgary and surrounding area in the new year.
If those numbers seem a bit optimistic to you – you’re not alone. There are some finance experts, mortgage experts, economists and real estate pros who argue that the threat of rising interest rates, the continued slow recovery rate regarding Alberta’s economy, or even the possibility of a greater than expected number of listings flooding the market will serve to soften those numbers instead of pacifying those predictions.
Also, keeping an eye on interest rates, with both fixed and variable products, may factor into the mix as usual when it comes to consumer confidence and following the herd. As long as first-time and move-up buyers continue to keep buying, we may very well see this upward trend come to pass.
And whether this prediction comes true or not, when you compare the numbers with recent years past (as the Herald does, with a neat stat at the end of the article: “in 2007, Calgary had 32,176 MLS sales for an average price of $414,066. In 2008, there were 23,136 sales for an average of $405,267“) we’re still below previous Calgary real estate market highs.
Thoughts? Send me your comments.
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