CREB April Data Analysis
Another month of the data has come and once again we see many positive signs that are of course ignored by mainstream media. Are we at the bottom of the Calgary real estate market? Watch and see….
CREB April Analysis from Greg Williamson on Vimeo.
May 11th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
So, my very self-serving question is: Is now a good or bad time to be selling an near-downtown condo that has dropped significantly in value over the past year and a half and buying a near-downtown single family house in the $550k-$650k price range? It seems that we would be buying in a much tighter market than we’re selling in, but that doesn’t mean that it’s going to get any more favourable over the course of the next year or two…
May 12th, 2009 at 11:17 am
Well Rob, the condo market has not seen as good of a rebound, but is still rebounding better then expected. For clarity in this response and because I did not cover condos in the video here is the data:
Condo sales in Metro Calgary were 579 which was an increase of 30% from March 2009, BUT better yet it was only 2% less then in April 2008 which saw 581 condos change hands. This could be skewed as the Condo market started slipping in early 2008 quicker then the single family dwelling market did, but none the less it is an improvement.
Condo average prices in metro Calgary decreased 2% from March 2009 which is still a pretty healthy decrease month over month, but year over year the average price was down 11% which is in line with the 10% year over year drop in average price for a single family dwelling.
Somewhat troubling still in the condo market and why it is still lagging behind the single family dwelling market is that fact that new listings added in April was 7% higher then March versus a drop in new listings added for SFD. So there is still inventory being added to the condo market that is sluggish on demand. This will likely continue to drive prices down for the foreseeable future.
What does all this mean? I think that we have proven that the market for single family homes has bottomed out so as a buyer in that market the time is right to get in particularly to lock in the low interest rates today. However as a seller of a condo, that market is still dropping in price and likely will continue as long as new listings added to the market increases every month.
So in your situation, you either wait it out in your condo, which may be years not months before that market comes back, in the meantime you will experience more price drops, or I would price my condo today to lead the market, which is to say that you price below any other competitors in your complex or area, and get it sold and take the loss today as opposed to later where it will be worse and then take advantage of the good opportunities to buy today in the single family dwelling market that you aspire to be in.
Keep in mind also that it is likely years not months before the SFD market earns back the loss in value we experienced over the last 18 months, so either way this decision is likely not motivated entirely by the financial investment side but largely by your quality of life and where you want to live while you wait out the market.
- Greg
May 14th, 2009 at 2:47 pm
Greg, that’s really helpful insight. Thanks,
Rob