I have been thinking about this for a while…We are technically in Canada now entering likely a technical recession (remember class the definition of a recession is two quarters of negative growth). For review the US has been in a technical recession for all four quarters of 2008, and in Canada although the numbers are not out yet it appears the fourth quarter of 2008 may be negative, and likely the first one or two quarters of 2009 may also be, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
Anyway the part that is weird and perplexing for me is all the abbundance that is still out there? For instance both WestJet and Air Canada defied the ‘stalling economy’ and brutal weather and reported RECORD load numbers for the second month in a row in December.
Last night I went out with a good friend for a couple of pints and the bar we were in was absolutely jammed and boisterous.
Earlier this weekI was at The Keg on a Tuesday night and the restaurant was jammed. OnFriday night we were at Earls and there was still a 45 minute wait for a table and the lounge was jammed.
Going into Costco, superstore, safeway, et al on a weekend is still an exercise in insanity.
Malls? Are you kidding me, the parking lots mid week, in the evening are still extremely busy.
Talking with a bunch of other Dads, at our 7:45 am practice this morning (why is it always only the Dads who are at 7:45 am practices??) and everone was talking about the holidays they booked, and where they were going skiing, and european vacations in the summer?
What’s the point of all this? WHERE is the RECESSION? When are people going to act like there is one? Listen I know there has been some adjustments, particularly on major purchases, but if you think about it many people are still going about their life, certainly they are more aware of what they are doing, which ultimately I guess is great and what corrections/slowdowns are meant to do.
Post comments on this as i am interested in a conversation over what peoples thoughts are on this phenomenon
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By SL, January 12, 2009 @ 8:25 pm
Sure, I will comment. Why are people still in the malls and spending money as always? Well, there are those who live with rose colored glasses and refuse to “accept” that things have changed. They still have credit cards and are still using them. Some still have home equity lines of credit with their new found wealth (even though it is only paper wealth something people have yet to be able to understand) so they feel confident, until they have to pay it all back. Big ticket items are definitely on the downward slide in terms of sales, but people feel as if a few dollars here and there (such as luunch, a new shirt etc) are ok and manageable.
So in conclusion, it still all debt that is being used and will continue to be since that’s how the world operates today. Logical? nope, but it looks like governments will do anything they have to to enable people to spend even more money they do not have and cannot afford to spend.
And so it goes.
By Greg, January 13, 2009 @ 8:57 am
Well, that is certainly one viewpoint. Is it really all debt? I am not so sure and of course none of us really know. Again last night I was at The Keg and there was a line up all night…on a MONDAY night?
I get that the real damage is the lack of big ticket items, but I think some of the recovery lies in people not retreating on the smaller things.