I think Yes. If you look at the US who of course is leading the cause of all the rest of the housing turmoils globally then you would say we are climbing out. Even though housing starts are at the lowest level in 17 years, but the good news is the rate of the decline has dropped from a high of 50% to it’s current 27% decline.
The better news is that new housing permits are rising for the first time in a year. Permits usually are ahead of starts by around six months, so we are looking to see housing starts rise again in the short run.
This of course means that The Fed is going to be very careful in it’s upcoming regularly scheduled meeting, in fact the market is betting that The Fed will hold rates. Bank of Canada will then also be in a position to hold rates. Although we expect one more decline in the Bank of Canada’s hand that will be it.
As mentioned before the focus will need to switch to when will inflation come roaring in to bring the rates screaming back up.
Stay tuned
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