
Sales are up, inventory is down, demand is steady (if not increasing) and spring is just around the corner. And it’s not just Calgary – the story is similar across just about every major Canadian centre right now, according to a recent press release by Canadian Newswire.
The release highlights an report from RE/MAX, which outlines some of the raw sales data, year-over-year, within Canada’s biggest cities. It also draws attention to the January 2010 numbers – citing stronger than expected sales activity, nationally, for the typically or traditionally slower month of January.
Rather than make it a marketing piece for RE/MAX, and also ensure we don’t take their word as gospel, it’s important to remember that we won’t know how strong the market will actually be this spring and summer – until we get there. The numbers within this report are certainly promising. And I agree, we”ll likely see pent-up demand not as strong as it has been, which means we will probably see a more steady growth as opposed to the rapid growth many markets saw last year.
And when the feds continue to tighten the noose, so to speak, regarding lending guidelines, we’ll likely see more Canadians, in urban markets, start to think a lot more seriously about getting off the fence. The same will hold true when lenders begin raising their rates, as the pendulum swings, and the central bank begins increasing it’s rate by 25 basis-points (or more), on a regular-basis.
But I like the idea that we’re certainly well-ahead of where we were last year at this time. Those numbers tell a significant story and those numbers also speak for themselves. They can’t be fudged.
According to the report, here are the cities with some of the most significant gains:
“The highest year-over-year sales gains were reported in Greater Vancouver (152 per cent), Kelowna (121 per cent), Greater Toronto (87 per cent), Victoria (69 per cent), Hamilton-Burlington (58 per cent), London-St. Thomas (55 per cent) and Calgary (47 per cent). Western Canadian cities dominated the list of centres with the highest increases in price appreciation. These included Victoria at 25.5 per cent, Kelowna at 22 per cent, Greater Vancouver at 19.5 per cent, and Winnipeg at 17 per cent. St. John’s (23 per cent) and Toronto (19 per cent) were also among the front-runners for price growth.”
I can’t necessarily speak for other cities, but what I’ve noticed here is that business is steady, in the market. There are definitely people buying, there is certainly reduced inventory, and buyers are still being picky. Offers are now closer to list than they were, say just months ago, but people also don’t appear to be listing for astronomically or ridiculously higher than what they should be – like they did in the ‘good old days’ of 2008. And average and median prices are creeping up slowly (mostly on the single-fam, detached, side) but we’re not seeing double-digit gains. Nor should we expect to.
Now we’re into March and I bet we’ll see this trend continue. And like the article notes, “for every successful offer, there are those that will walk away empty-handed. They’re thrust back into the buyer pool and the process starts all over again. Some buyers are upping the ante, while others are considering alternate housing options. Still, purchasers remain cautious in their bids, with most careful not to max out debt service ratios.”
It will truly be interesting to see what happens coast-to-coast. And here’s hoping we’ve learned some valuable lessons from the past and we don’t keep getting in over our heads, biting off more than we can chew, and maxing ourselves out financially based on today’s rates, because mark my word, when rates do go up – those who’ve leveraged themselves poorly or maxed themselves out might be in for a rude awakening, when interest rates go up, prices go up and inflation sets in.
Thoughts? Comments? Insights? Tell me.